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It Ain't Over Till It's Over - 8/16/16

President Obama is quite right when he told a group of Democrat contributors at a recent fundraiser that the worst thing that Hillary Clinton could do is to become overconfident and assume victory in November's election.

True, things look very rosy for her now, she leads, sometimes by impressive margins, in all the national and most of the state polls, some of the latter showing her competitive in such formerly solid Republican states as Utah and South Carolina. And the Donald continues to behave as the President also stated, quite rightly, that
"every time he talks he makes the case against his own candidacy."  According to the graphic that appears at the bottom of every political news article I read on AOL, Trump now has a less than one chance in five of winning the election.  (I have no idea how they make this calculation, but it seems about right to me.)

But as Harold MacMillan may have remarked once, "events" have the ability to disrupt the most carefully drawn political plans.  In 2000, George W. Bush might have avoided the recount if the news stories about his drunk driving arrests as a youth in Maine had not been released just days before the election.  In 1960, Richard Nixon might have won if he had followed JFK's example and paid a visit to the Dr. Martin Luther King in jail, at a time when Republicans still were capable of winning a sizable portion of the black vote.

It's easy to imagine the type of events that could radically change the outcome this year. After all, all the issues are on the side of the GOP.   If some governmental body actually decides to hold Hillary accountable for her crimes and misdemeanors, it could result in a Trump victory.  On the other hand, if some NRA member wearing a TRUMP 2016 button and carrying an AK-47 walks into the headquarters of the ACLU and proceeds to do a Virginia Tech number on the staffers, the Democrats might win by an even bigger margin than the opinion polls now indicate.

So both Hillary and Donald and their supporters should act as though the election surveys have them well behind until election day and on that day they should do everything they can to turn out every one of their voters.  Of course, it will be easier for Trump to act that way, since that is what the polls now indicate will be the result.

Questions, comments,  compliments, objections about the above? The Oldest & Wisest wants to know!  Email him at oldest_wisest@aol.com


Questions, comments,  compliments, objections about the above? The Oldest & Wisest wants to know!  Email him at oldest_wisest@aol.com